The row between Egypt and Ethiopia over water from the River Nile goes back
many years. Now it is escalating as Ethiopia forges ahead with the construction
of a huge dam. But there is more to the dispute than just water.
For decades Egypt and Ethiopia have been at loggerheads over the question of
water rights and the River Nile. Ousted President Mubarak made it plain that
any attempt by Ethiopia to restrict Egyptian access to the Nile would leave his
country with no alternative to "confrontation, in order to defend our
rights and our lives."
Mubarak's successor Mohammed Morsi is no less emphatic. "We do not want
a war, but we are keeping all options open," he said.
The response from the late Ethiopian prime minister Meles Zenawi was
succinct. "If Egypt wants to prevent Ethiopia from using water from the
Nile, then it must occupy our territory - and that's something no country in
the world has ever done."
Ethiopian Prime Minister Desalegn says dam construction will go ahead
His successor Hailemariam Desalegn added recently that "nothing and no
one" would stop construction of the dam.
Prestige project
At the center of the dispute is "The Grand Renaissance Dam"
project, currently under construction on Ethiopia's upper stretch of the Blue
Nile, close to the border with Sudan. The dam is a source of anger to Egypt
which fears the amount of water flowing into its territory will be reduced. By
virtue of its sheer size and capacity, the Great Renaissance Dam dwarfs all
previous dam and irrigation projects. Construction costs are put at $4.2
billion (3.2 billion euros).
When it is completed, the turbines will generate 6,000 megawatts of
electricity, making Ethiopia the biggest energy-producer on the African
continent. The project is as important for the government in Addis Ababa as the
Three Gorges Dam is for China. It is a highly political prestige project,
partly financed by deductions to the salaries of state employees.
The government insists that the gigantic dam can be built without financial
aid from abroad. However it has accepted credit from China of more than a
billion US dollars for power cables.
Bumper harvests in Egypt, starvation in Ethiopia
The dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia goes back to two agreements from 1929
and 1959. Colonial power Great Britain accorded the water of the Nile in its
entirety to Egypt and Sudan for agricultural use. In addition, Egypt was given
the right to veto any upriver construction projects.
This left Ethiopia literally high and dry. The source of the Blue Nile is
located in Ethiopia but it flows mainly through the highlands and can only irrigate
fields to a limited degree. Lower down, the combined water masses of the White
and Blue Nile flow through Egypt, irrigating fields and ensuring good harvests,
while in Ethiopia millions of people are starving.
One fifth of the Renaissance Dam is now complete. In May 2013 alarm bells
began ringing in Cairo when the Ethiopians began to divert the Nile into a new
course, so that the dam walls could be built. However, a ten-member committee
of experts had previously come to the conclusion that Egypt need not fear any
longterm consequences for its water supplies.
Will there be a water war?
Despite the experts' assurances that there is nothing to fear, the row is
escalating. On Egyptian TV politicans were recently seen discussing radical
measures such as blowing up the dam or supporting Ethiopian rebel groups. Later
they claimed they had not known the cameras were on.
For neutral observers, the feeling is growing that the dispute is not so
much about the Nile as about the problems of both leaders, Morsi and Desalegn.
Both are unpopular in their respective countries, particularly among the young.
Most Egyptians are not willing to give up a drop of water from the Nile
Both seem to be trying to score points with nationalistic speeches and
verbal sabre-rattling. Experts see no real risk of the two going to war.
But if that were to happen, the Egyptian military would face a highly
disciplined Ethiopian army. There would also be logistical problems, not least
the fact that the two countries do not share a border. "Threats from Cairo
to sabotage the dams have aways turned out to be bluffs in the past," says
conflict researcher Ashok Swain from Uppsala University in Sweden.
Ethiopia 'not intimidated'
An offer to mediate by the African Union was brusquely rejected by Ethiopia.
The Egyptian foreign minister is now expected in Addis Ababa in the next few
days. Ahead of his visit, a spokesman for the Ethiopian government said that
Ethiopia was "not intimidated by Egypt's psychological warfare" and
would not delay dam construction "by one second."
To underline this further, on Thursday (13.06.2013) the Ethiopian parliament
unanimously passed the Entebbe Agreement of 2010 which is intended to replace
the disputed agreements from the colonial era. And Ethiopia is not alone. Other
Nile states, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya and Burundi, have ratified the new
agreement. The Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan have indicated
their intention to follow suit. Eritrea has observer status. All in all, the
prospects for Egypt do not look good.
There is a practical solution which was first made some time ago. Egypt
could make more efficient use of the water from the River Nile. At the moment
the water flows through ancient irrigation systems. If Ethiopia's dam were to
cause any reduction in the amount of water, the Egyptians could compensate for
this by modernizing their equipment. But such a proposal would probably not be
well received by the Egyptian electorate.
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