Central African Republic: Failure Has Many Fathers - the Coup in the Central African Republic
PART 2
How can we explain the fall of the Bozizé regime and the failure of the political transition?
The political transition process that was meant to follow the 2013 Libreville agreement never really started. The peace agreement, signed on 11 January 2013, was followed by the creation of a transitional government on 3 February 2013 which included the Seleka leaders. The rebels' takeover of the capital city and this reversal of situation are due to four factors:
1.The common feeling in the Central African political class that President Bozizé would not respect the Libreville commitments and that he would block the transition.
For instance, he celebrated the tenth anniversary of his own putsch on 15 March 2013 by organising a public meeting in Bangui and urging young people to "resist Seleka". In addition, he had imposed some of his relatives in the transitional government, rearmed (buying helicopters) and delayed releasing political prisoners.
2. The discontent of the military commanders of the Seleka towards the Libreville agreement. Some Seleka military commanders blamed Michel Djotodia for signing the agreement too quickly and for taking into consideration his own interest and not that of the fighters. This generated serious tensions within the Seleka.
3.The end of Bozizé's regional support. At the meeting in Libreville, former President Bozizé's regional peers forced him to accept several concessions and blamed him for closing down political space and dialogue with the opposition.
The fact that the MICOPAX (the Economic Community of Central African States' peacekeeping mission in CAR) did not intervene when the rebels moved towards Bangui can be interpreted as the end of Bozizé's regional support.
4. The unavoidable collapse of the Central African army. It had already been unable to stop the Seleka fighters in December 2012 and Bozizé had dismissed his son, who was Minister of Defence at the time and the army chief of staff. Under-equipped and unmotivated, the army was no longer able to fight and the rebels quickly realised it.
TO BE CONTINUED IN PART THREE...........
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